Stay Home. Stop the Spread. Save Lives.
Governor Andrew M. Cuomo has consistently said 40 to 80 percent of the state’s population may eventually be infected by the novel coronavirus.
How quickly that might happen depends on our response, he said during his Sunday briefing. We may be caught up in this emergency for months — 4, 6, 9 or more, he said. But if we’re able to slow the spread of the pathogen, and expand hospital capacity to meet the anticipated additional burden, we can save lives.
While a majority of cases will be asymptomatic or exhibit symptoms that can managed at home, the current hospitalization rate in New York is about 13 percent, the governor said Sunday.
What does that mean for us here on Shelter Island?
All of the mandates that have been put in place are aimed at slowing the spread of the virus so that we don’t overwhelm our limited medical resources. Here’s the sobering math:
Shelter Island has an estimated population of about 2,600 [note: we’re using 2017 census estimates and while some summer residents are here now, some snowbirds who would be returning this time of year have stayed put in their winter homes].
There are two known Shelter Island cases as of Saturday, but with more testing underway, that number will likely grow. By the governor’s estimates, we can expect to see 1,040 (40%) to 2,080 (80%) of Island residents eventually infected.
If 13 percent of those who are infected need hospital care, that’s 135 to 270 people.
Shared resources
We share our local medical resources with our neighbors on the North and South forks, and elsewhere in Suffolk County. As of Sunday, Suffolk had 1,034 confirmed COVID-19 cases, nearly double the day before.
For a county population of about 1.49 million people, we have about 3,000 hospital beds. State and federal officials are working to expand that capacity, with mobile hospital units and additional supplies and staffing resources.
Using the governor’s estimates, 596,000 to 1,920,000 county residents may eventually be infected. And while they won’t all sicken at once, eventually about 13 percent — an estimated 77,480 to 249,600 people — may need hospital care. And complicated cases can require weeks of treatment.
Globally, the CDC reported a fatality rate ranging from 2 to 4 percent. If that holds true in Suffolk County, we might see many thousands of of deaths countywide with dozens here on Shelter Island.
Work together to contain this pathogen
We urge all Shelter Islanders to work together to contain this pathogen. Heed the words of our federal, state, county and local officials:
Stay Home. Stop the Spread. Save Lives.
Follow this link to read about the New York State mandates that take effect tonight at 8PM.
