As Henri strengthens and heads north from its 8 AM position 525 miles south of Montauk, it is on track to possibly bring hurricane conditions, with a dangerous storm surge and flooding, here beginning tonight, the National Weather Service says.
The NWS National Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Warning with a storm surge possible of 3 to 5 feet, which could be exacerbated by the timing of the high tides made even higher by tomorrow’s full moon. The storm is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with areas of up to 10 inches possible.
Today, the local forecast calls for 21 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms, with winds around 5 to 7 MPH. The NWS predicts partly sunny skies with a high temperature around 81 degrees. These conditions should enable Islanders to make hurricane preparations, such as securing outdoor furniture and preparing for possible power outages.
Tropical conditions and possibly hurricane conditions may arrive tonight, and PSEG Long Island says East End customers should be ready for power outages, some possibly lasting seven to 10 days. PSEG will have personnel and equipment on Shelter Island ready to begin repairs once the weather permits, the Town’s emergency management team says.
We will post updates from the National Hurricane Center in Miami as they become available.
Bulletin as of 5 AM Saturday
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 22-A:
- AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE INVESTIGATING HENRI
- A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND A FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY …
Summary as of 5 AM Saturday
- LOCATION…33.6N 72.7W
- ABOUT 200 MI (320 KM) SE OF CAPE HATTERAS, NORTH CAROLINA
- ABOUT 525 MI (850 KM) S OF MONTAUK POINT, NEW YORK
- MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH/110 KM/H
- PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH (19 KM/H)
- MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.32 INCHES
Changes in Watches and Warnings
None since the last report at 5 AM.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for:
- South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point
- North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing
- Flushing, NY to Chatham MA
- Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Block Island
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for:
- East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic
- North of Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA
- Cape Cod Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for:
- South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
- North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point
- New Haven, CT to west of Watch Hill, RI
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:
- Watch Hill, RI to Sagamore Beach, MA
- Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Block Island
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
- Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
- South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet
- Watch Hill, RI to Woods Hole, MA including Block Island and Martha’s Vineyard
- Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to Manasquan Inlet, including New York City
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous
Discussions and outlook
At 8 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 72.7 West. Henri is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion is expected today, with a turn toward the north-northwest expected late today or tonight. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in Long Island or southern New England on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the 24 hours, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane today and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long Island or southern New England.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
Hazards affecting land
Storm surge: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, Nantucket Sound, 3 to 5 feet
- North shore of Long Island, from Flushing to Montauk Point, including the Long Island Sound, 3 to 5 feet
- South shore of Long Island, from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, 3 to 5 feet
- Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA, including Cape Cod Bay, 2 to 4 feet
- South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, 2 to 4 feet
- Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY, 1 to 3 feet
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
Wind: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area late Saturday night or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area late Saturday night or on Sunday, with tropical conditions possible by late Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area late Saturday night and Sunday.
Rainfall: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over Long Island southern New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri could result in considerable flash, urband and small stream flooding along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding.
Tornadoes: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New England.
Surf: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the East Coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
About the NWS graphic:
Note: The time of the tropical cyclone’s center location at the bottom of the graphic will be 3 hours earlier than the time of the current advisory. The forecast cycle for each advisory begins 3 hours prior to the issuance of the advisory products.
These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt (39 mph). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 39 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. The cumulative periods begin at the start of the forecast period and extend through the entire 5-day forecast period at cumulative 12-hour intervals (i.e., 0-12 h, 0-24 h, 0-36 h, … , 0-120 h). An individual graphic is produced for each cumulative interval, and the capability to zoom and animate through the periods is provided. To assess the overall risk of experiencing winds of at least 39 mph at any location, the 120-h graphics are recommended.
These probabilities will be updated by the NHC with each advisory package for all active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. While separate graphics are focused on each individual tropical cyclone, probabilities resulting from more than one active tropical cyclone may be seen on each graphic.
It is important for users to realize that wind speed probabilities that might seem relatively small at their location might still be quite significant, since they indicate that there is a chance that a damaging or even extreme event could occur that warrants preparations to protect lives and property.
Additionally, these probability products are available on the National Weather Service’s National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) graphical tropical webpage.
