Hurricane Henri, now moving about 18 miles per hour, is due to pass east of us late this morning or early this afternoon, as it moves about 18 mph from its 5 AM Sunday position 80 miles south-southeast of Montauk, forecasters say.
The storm is forecast to make a turn to the north-northwest later today, and our area is expected to receive hurricane force winds and heavy rainfall.
Tropical storm conditions are already present on the East End, with heavy bands of rainfall leaving water pooled on surfaces. Henri is on track to bring hurricane conditions, with a dangerous storm surge and flooding, starting this morning, the National Weather Service says.
The NWS National Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Warning with a storm surge possible of 3 to 5 feet, which could be exacerbated by the timing of the high tides (around 10:45 AM and 11:10 PM) made even higher by today’s full moon.
The storm is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with areas of up to 10 inches possible.
PSEG Long Island says East End customers should be ready for power outages, some possibly lasting seven to 10 days. PSEG will have personnel and equipment on Shelter Island ready to begin repairs once the weather permits, the Town’s emergency management team says.
The Town of Shelter Island declared a state of emergency and closed roads starting at 6 AM on Sunday through 6 AM on Monday (neighboring towns took similar actions). Shelter Island Supervisor Gerry Siller noted that ferry service will also be impacted and asked residents of Ram Island to comply with a voluntary evacuation, saying flooding on causeways may leave Little and Big Ram inaccessible to emergency vehicles.
Governor Andrew M. Cuomo also declared a state of emergency and activated National Guard troops to assist with hurricane preparations, emergency management and cleanup in affected areas, including Suffolk County.
We will post updates from the National Hurricane Center in Miami as they become available.
Bulletin as of 5 AM Sunday
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 26
- OUTER BANDS OF HENRI MOVING ONSHORE IN EASTER LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
- A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND A FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
Summary as of 5 AM Sunday
- LOCATION…40.1N 71.2W
- ABOUT 80 MI (125KM) SSE OF MONTAUK POINT, NEW YORK
- ABOUT 120 MI (190KM) S OF PROVIDENCE, RHODE ISLAND
- MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH/120 KM/H
- PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 350 DEGREES AT 18 MPH (30 KM/H)
- MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES
No Changes in Watches and Warnings
There are no changes in watches and warnings since the last report at 8 PM.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for:
- South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point
- North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing
- Flushing, NY to Chatham MA
- Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Block Island
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for:
- East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic
- North of Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA
- Cape Cod Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for:
- South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
- North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point
- New Haven, CT to west of Westport, MA
- Block Island, RI
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
- Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
- South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet
- Watch Hill, RI to Woods Hole, MA including Block Island and Martha’s Vineyard
- Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to Manasquan Inlet, including New York City
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous
Discussions and outlook
At 5 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located near latitude 40.1 North, longitude 71.2 West. Henri is moving toward the north near 18 mph (30 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north-northwest is expected this morning or early this afternoon. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in souther new England or on Long Island late this morning or early this afternoon.
After landfall, a turn to the north and a slower forward speed are expected as Henri moves over southern New England.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected this morning and Henri is expected to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coasts of southern New England and Long Island. Rapid weakening is expected after Henri makes landfall.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center.
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data t is 986 mb (29.15 inches).
Hazards affecting land
Storm surge: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, Nantucket Sound, 3 to 5 feet
- North shore of Long Island, from Flushing to Montauk Point, including the Long Island Sound, 3 to 5 feet
- South shore of Long Island, from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, 3 to 5 feet
- Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA, including Cape Cod Bay, 2 to 4 feet
- South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, 2 to 4 feet
- Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY, 1 to 3 feet
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
Wind: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area late Saturday night or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area late Saturday night or on Sunday, with tropical conditions possible by late Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area late Saturday night and Sunday.
Rainfall: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over Long Island, New England, southeast New York and southern New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri could result in considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding.
Tornadoes: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New England.
Surf: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the East Coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Satellite image courtesy of NESDIS Satellite Services Division (NOAA).
