The National Weather Service on Friday morning issued a Hurricane Watch for Tropical Storm Henri, with storm surge possible, and an expected arrival in our area as early as Sunday.
We will post updates from the NWS Hurricane Center in Miami as they become available.
Report as of 2 PM Friday
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 19A:
- HENRI ALMOST A HURRICANE …
- STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
Summary as of 2 PM Friday
- LOCATION…30.8N 73.8W
- ABOUT 320 MI…515 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
- ABOUT 720 MI…1160 KM SSW OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
- MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
- PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
- MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.35 INCHES
Watches and Warnings
The Storm Surge Watch has been extended since the 8AM report, slightly westward to Flushing, New York, including adjacent areas of western Long Island Sound and the East River.
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for:
- South Shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Montauk
- North Shore of Long Island from Kings Point to Montauk
- Flushing New York to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
- Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Block Island
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for.:
- South Shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk
- North Shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
- New Haven Connecticut to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
- Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Block Island
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
- West of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet New York
- West of Port Jefferson Harbor New York
- West of New Haven Connecticut
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Discussions and outlook
At 2 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 73.78West. Henri is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by tonight, and Henri is forecast to accelerate in that direction through early Sunday. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in southern New England by late Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in souther New England.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).
Hazards affecting land
Storm surge: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- Watch Hill, RI to Sagamore Beach, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, Nantucket Sound, and Cape Cod Bay, 3 to 5 feet
- East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY, 2 to 4 feet
- North shore of Long Island, 2 to 4 feet
- Kings Point, NY to Watch Hill, RI, 2 to 4 feet
- Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY, 1 to 3 feet
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
Wind: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Sunday.
Rainfall: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches over southern New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 8 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in areas of flash, urban, and small stream flooding.
Surf: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
About the NWS graphic:
Note: The time of the tropical cyclone’s center location at the bottom of the graphic will be 3 hours earlier than the time of the current advisory. The forecast cycle for each advisory begins 3 hours prior to the issuance of the advisory products.
These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt (39 mph). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 39 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. The cumulative periods begin at the start of the forecast period and extend through the entire 5-day forecast period at cumulative 12-hour intervals (i.e., 0-12 h, 0-24 h, 0-36 h, … , 0-120 h). An individual graphic is produced for each cumulative interval, and the capability to zoom and animate through the periods is provided. To assess the overall risk of experiencing winds of at least 39 mph at any location, the 120-h graphics are recommended.
These probabilities will be updated by the NHC with each advisory package for all active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. While separate graphics are focused on each individual tropical cyclone, probabilities resulting from more than one active tropical cyclone may be seen on each graphic.
It is important for users to realize that wind speed probabilities that might seem relatively small at their location might still be quite significant, since they indicate that there is a chance that a damaging or even extreme event could occur that warrants preparations to protect lives and property.
Additionally, these probability products are available on the National Weather Service’s National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) graphical tropical webpage.
