Governor Andrew M. Cuomo on Sunday told New Yorkers they have to stay home through April 15.
And local health officials across New York State should prepare for what he called a “rolling apex” of infection during his daily briefing from Albany.
The governor extended an executive order that went into effect last Sunday ordering all non-essential workers to stay home for at least 15 days. It also banned all gatherings for any purpose.
[Read this Gazette post to find out who is considered an essential worker.]
The decision follows reports that 965 New Yorkers have died of COVID-19, up from 728 a day ago. As of Sunday, 8,503 people remain hospitalized around the state, including 2,037 intensive care unit patients.
When asked by a reporter what death toll people should expect, Cuomo said the state relies on a variety of projections to plan its response.
“I don’t see how you could look at those numbers and see anything less than thousands of people will pass away,” he said.
Latest reports
In Suffolk County, there were 5,023 cases reported in Suffolk County, up 885 from the day before. Statewide, 59,513 people have tested positive, up 7,195 from the day before.
Another 846 patients were discharged from the day before bringing the total discharged to 3,572.
Testing has also increased: statewide 172,360 people have been tested for the novel coronavirus, with 16,390 added the day before; and in Suffolk County 14,230 have been tested, up 2,155 the day before.
Religious observations curtailed
The extension of the stay home order through April 15 means religious celebrations relating to Easter and Passover must be curtailed.
“Density is the enemy here for this particular time,” Cuomo said, noting that an early cluster in New Rochelle resulted when members of a close-knit community gathered to mourn a death before awareness of the danger was widespread.
“Worship the way you can,” he said, “but the gatherings are just not a good idea.”
Rolling apex
“Current projections all say New York City will face the first high water mark,” Cuomo said, followed closely by Westchester County and Long Island and then, Upstate New York.
Cuomo called for hospital officials to change the mentality that their institutions can continue to act independently.
“No hospital is an Island,” he said. “No hospital in this situation can exist unto itself.”
Instead, hospitals must work together regionally, whether they are publicly or privately run. And, regionally hospitals around the state must prepare to take on some of the burden of hospitals that are overburdened.
Return to normal?
Cuomo said he is often asked when will the state return to normal.
The answer is going to be in testing, he said. “If you can test millions of people, you could send them to work tomorrow.”
“When they come up with an inexpensive home test or point of care test that can be brought to volume, I think that’s probably when you see a real return to normalcy in the workforce,” Cuomo said.
New York in the crosshairs
Cuomo spoke about an advisory posted by the CDC Saturday night that residents of the New York metro area should refrain from non-essential travel for 14 days, effective immediately (see the full statement near the end of this post).
“This is not a lockdown,” the governor said. “It’s totally consistent with everything we’ve been doing.”
He thanked President Trump and federal officials for the advisory — a far more toned down response than they’d been touting — and the governor of Rhode Island for rescinding an executive order that had called for drivers in cars with New York State plates to be stopped and ordered into quarantine.
“I know we feel under attack,” Cuomo said. “This is New York and we are going to make it through this.”
See the projections
Deborah Birx, who leads the response for the White House Coronavirus Task Force, said on Sunday morning television programs that all over the country municipalities should follow the lead of New York State and prepare for a wave of COVID-19 cases.
She said she looks particularly at projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle. You can see projections by state on the IHME website, healthdata.org.
The IHME projects that the peak of novel coronavirus infections in New York State will take place April 6, with a need for 48,283 beds (with a range of 23,944 to 111,583) at a time when only 13,010 beds are expected to be available.
The projected need for ICU beds on April 6 in NYS is 7,341 (with a range of 2,842 to 19,819) when only 718 are expected to be available.
Statement from the CDC
“Due to extensive community transmission of COVID -19 in the area, CDC urges residents of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut to refrain from non-essential domestic travel for 14 days effective immediately. This Domestic Travel Advisory does not apply to employees of critical infrastructure industries, including but not limited to trucking, public health professionals, financial services, and food supply.”
“These employees of critical infrastructure, as defined by the Department of Homeland Security, have a special responsibility to maintain normal work schedules. The Governors of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut will have full discretion to implement this Domestic Travel Advisory.”
Essential workers for the purpose of this order are defined here.
